Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 21 2021 | 10927 | 47482 | 351 | 104 | 112 | 160 |
| February 22 2021 | 10938 | 47520 | 351 | 104 | 112 | 156 |
| February 23 2021 | 10942 | 47601 | 352 | 105 | 105 | 154 |
| February 24 2021 | 10961 | 47702 | 351 | 104 | 105 | 163 |
| February 25 2021 | 10977 | 47961 | 351 | 104 | 110 | 162 |
| February 26 2021 | 10987 | 48092 | 351 | 104 | 116 | 161 |
| February 27 2021 | 11002 | 48106 | 351 | 104 | 118 | 165 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 0.7 | 7.6% | 9 | 0.08% | 11 | 0.1% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 2.0 | 18.6% | 22 | 0.16% | 32 | 0.24% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 2.7 | 24.6% | 29 | 0.14% | 42 | 0.2% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 0.9 | 6.8% | 8 | 0.06% | 16 | 0.12% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 1.6 | 12.7% | 15 | 0.14% | 17 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 1.4 | 11.9% | 14 | 0.11% | 18 | 0.14% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 0.9 | 7.6% | 9 | 0.08% | 13 | 0.11% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.1 | 10.2% | 12 | 0.11% | 16 | 0.15% |
| All ages | 15 | 11.3 | 100% | 118 | 0.11% | 165 | 0.16% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 21 2021 | 7009 | 27886 | 218 | 90 | 57 | 91 |
| February 22 2021 | 7009 | 27914 | 219 | 90 | 47 | 84 |
| February 23 2021 | 7013 | 27958 | 219 | 90 | 44 | 83 |
| February 24 2021 | 7013 | 28008 | 218 | 92 | 43 | 73 |
| February 25 2021 | 7021 | 28230 | 218 | 92 | 51 | 69 |
| February 26 2021 | 7029 | 28299 | 219 | 92 | 53 | 67 |
| February 27 2021 | 7039 | 28347 | 220 | 92 | 55 | 70 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.0 | -3.6% | -2 | -0.03% | -1 | -0.01% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 1.1 | 27.3% | 15 | 0.18% | 16 | 0.19% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 0.0 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.01% | 5 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 0 | -0.3 | -5.5% | -3 | -0.04% | 3 | 0.04% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 0.3 | 12.7% | 7 | 0.09% | 11 | 0.14% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 1.7 | 27.3% | 15 | 0.15% | 18 | 0.19% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 2.0 | 27.3% | 15 | 0.18% | 18 | 0.21% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.7 | 12.7% | 7 | 0.1% | 8 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 10 | 5.6 | 100% | 55 | 0.09% | 78 | 0.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 21 2021 | 5299 | 18557 | 232 | 75 | 82 | 111 |
| February 22 2021 | 5305 | 18570 | 233 | 75 | 80 | 113 |
| February 23 2021 | 5309 | 18577 | 234 | 76 | 73 | 114 |
| February 24 2021 | 5321 | 18612 | 234 | 76 | 76 | 116 |
| February 25 2021 | 5327 | 18661 | 235 | 76 | 73 | 110 |
| February 26 2021 | 5336 | 18677 | 235 | 76 | 80 | 111 |
| February 27 2021 | 5353 | 18703 | 235 | 76 | 86 | 117 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.7 | 7% | 6 | 0.11% | 11 | 0.2% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.6 | 9.3% | 8 | 0.15% | 10 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 4 | 1.4 | 18.6% | 16 | 0.35% | 19 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 1.6 | 16.3% | 14 | 0.26% | 16 | 0.29% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 1.1 | 11.6% | 10 | 0.2% | 13 | 0.26% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 1.3 | 19.8% | 17 | 0.25% | 22 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.0 | 9.3% | 8 | 0.13% | 11 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 1 | 0.6 | 8.1% | 7 | 0.11% | 15 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 17 | 8.3 | 100% | 86 | 0.19% | 117 | 0.26% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 21 2021 | 12127 | 51602 | 350 | 75 | 131 | 222 |
| February 22 2021 | 12133 | 51647 | 351 | 75 | 125 | 215 |
| February 23 2021 | 12144 | 51771 | 351 | 75 | 132 | 199 |
| February 24 2021 | 12162 | 51976 | 353 | 77 | 135 | 183 |
| February 25 2021 | 12170 | 52510 | 354 | 78 | 136 | 174 |
| February 26 2021 | 12192 | 52706 | 358 | 78 | 133 | 184 |
| February 27 2021 | 12211 | 52800 | 360 | 78 | 125 | 199 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 1.3 | 8.8% | 11 | 0.09% | 17 | 0.14% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 1.7 | 12.8% | 16 | 0.1% | 34 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 2.0 | 19.2% | 24 | 0.11% | 33 | 0.16% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 1.3 | 14.4% | 18 | 0.13% | 27 | 0.2% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 1.9 | 12.8% | 16 | 0.12% | 26 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.9 | 12% | 15 | 0.11% | 23 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.9 | 5.6% | 7 | 0.05% | 13 | 0.09% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.6 | 14.4% | 18 | 0.14% | 26 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 19 | 12.4 | 100% | 125 | 0.11% | 199 | 0.17% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 21 2021 | 39946 | 319186 | 1211 | 267 | 907 | 1277 |
| February 22 2021 | 40001 | 319547 | 1214 | 267 | 877 | 1233 |
| February 23 2021 | 40041 | 319904 | 1217 | 272 | 829 | 1234 |
| February 24 2021 | 40123 | 320020 | 1224 | 272 | 853 | 1217 |
| February 25 2021 | 40191 | 320820 | 1225 | 272 | 874 | 1152 |
| February 26 2021 | 40265 | 321066 | 1226 | 273 | 919 | 1141 |
| February 27 2021 | 40428 | 321518 | 1231 | 273 | 988 | 1216 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.7 | 4.3% | 42 | 0.07% | 55 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 54 | 24.7 | 29.6% | 292 | 0.41% | 371 | 0.52% |
| 20-29 | 63 | 29.3 | 37.3% | 369 | 0.36% | 441 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 7.4 | 9.5% | 94 | 0.12% | 124 | 0.16% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 5.3 | 5.9% | 58 | 0.09% | 69 | 0.11% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 6.0 | 7.1% | 70 | 0.11% | 80 | 0.12% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 2.7 | 3.2% | 32 | 0.06% | 44 | 0.08% |
| 70+ | 3 | 1.9 | 3.1% | 31 | 0.06% | 32 | 0.07% |
| All ages | 163 | 81.0 | 100% | 988 | 0.18% | 1216 | 0.22% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 21 2021 | 559575 | 2592363 | 25743 | 6284 | 6465 | 9749 |
| February 22 2021 | 559998 | 2595614 | 25775 | 6284 | 5950 | 9629 |
| February 23 2021 | 560564 | 2598601 | 25838 | 6317 | 5764 | 9514 |
| February 24 2021 | 561311 | 2603118 | 25893 | 6342 | 6008 | 9440 |
| February 25 2021 | 562151 | 2615455 | 25954 | 6394 | 6443 | 9041 |
| February 26 2021 | 562807 | 2620297 | 26013 | 6399 | 6475 | 8759 |
| February 27 2021 | 563496 | 2623498 | 26088 | 6412 | 6507 | 8696 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 43 | 43.6 | 6.6% | 430 | 0.07% | 567 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 127 | 103.9 | 17.1% | 1111 | 0.15% | 1487 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 113 | 101.7 | 17.1% | 1112 | 0.15% | 1450 | 0.19% |
| 30-39 | 94 | 84.7 | 13.9% | 905 | 0.12% | 1231 | 0.16% |
| 40-49 | 82 | 84.7 | 13.3% | 864 | 0.12% | 1151 | 0.16% |
| 50-59 | 101 | 90.6 | 14.4% | 940 | 0.12% | 1239 | 0.15% |
| 60-69 | 72 | 65.6 | 10.3% | 671 | 0.09% | 904 | 0.12% |
| 70+ | 57 | 43.0 | 7.3% | 474 | 0.07% | 667 | 0.1% |
| All ages | 689 | 617.7 | 100% | 6507 | 0.11% | 8696 | 0.15% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.8 | 23.5 | 20.1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 10.3% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.1 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 7.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25.9 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 25.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16.8 | 20.5 | 15.5 | 12.4 | 16.3 | 6.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22.2 | 52.2 | 42.5 | 81 | 77 | 16.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14.9 | 19.6 | 19.2 | 617.7 | 754.6 | 11% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.64 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-03-20 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5469"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges